Using Cynefin to Decide When You Need a Wardley Map

In today's dynamic business world, two strategy tools stand out: the Cynefin framework (Dave Snowden) and Wardley Maps (Simon Wardley). They might seem unrelated, but together they provide a practical guide for deciding when mapping makes sense.

This guide will help you understand when Wardley Mapping adds value and when it's a waste of time. You'll learn to use Cynefin as a decision-making framework to determine whether mapping will help or hinder your strategic efforts.

A Quick Refresher on Cynefin

The Cynefin framework helps leaders understand the nature of their challenges:

Clear: Predictable problems with established solutions → use best practices
Complicated: Multiple possible solutions → seek expert analysis
Complex: Unpredictable, emergent patterns → experiment to learn
Chaotic: No patterns, urgent response needed → act first, then analyze
Aporetic/Disorder: Unclear situation → break it down into parts

When to Use Wardley Maps

Wardley Maps visualize value chains and their evolution (Genesis → Custom-Built → Product → Commodity). They reveal where you are, what is moving, and where to play next.

So, where does mapping fit within Cynefin?

✅ Complicated Domain

Here, experts search for the best solution. A map adds clarity:

Shows dependencies
Highlights trade-offs
Helps align specialist insights

Example: A manufacturing company optimizing its supply chain. Multiple experts (logistics, procurement, operations) can use a Wardley Map to visualize dependencies and find the optimal configuration.

✅ Complex Domain

This is where Wardley Maps shine.

They provide a snapshot of the evolving landscape
Allow teams to anchor experiments in known components
Help move issues from "complex" to "complicated" as patterns emerge

Example: A startup entering a new market with emerging technology. The map helps them understand what's stable (commodity) versus what's still evolving (genesis), guiding where to experiment and where to use proven solutions.

❌ Clear Domain

In the clear domain, everything is known. There is no point in mapping—best practices are already obvious.
A map here adds little value beyond training or communication.

Example: A restaurant following standard food safety protocols. The value chain is well-established and doesn't need mapping.

⛔ Chaotic Domain

In chaos, there's no time to map. You need immediate action, not analysis.
Mapping can follow after the crisis, to make sense of what happened.

Example: A cybersecurity breach requiring immediate response. The team must act first to contain the threat, then map the incident afterward to improve future responses.

The Overlap Between Cynefin and Mapping Evolution

Genesis often feels chaotic → experiment rapidly
Custom-built overlaps with complicated/complex → maps guide trade-offs
Product & Commodity sit closer to complicated/clear → maps confirm efficiency and risk

Practical Decision Framework

Use this simple decision tree:

Is the situation chaotic? → Don't map, act immediately
Is the situation clear? → Don't map, follow best practices
Is the situation complicated? → Map to clarify dependencies and trade-offs
Is the situation complex? → Map to anchor experiments and track evolution

Key Takeaway

👉 Use Wardley Maps when the problem is Complicated or Complex.
They won't help in Clear situations (too obvious), and they can't help in Chaotic situations (too urgent).

The fusion of Cynefin for context and Wardley Maps for landscape gives you both decision guidance and strategic clarity.

Key Snippet

Wardley Maps are most useful in the Complicated and Complex domains of Cynefin. They are unnecessary in Clear situations and impractical in Chaos.

Next Steps

Learn the basics of Wardley Mapping
Explore how to read your first map
Try mapping a problem in the complex space of your business today