All Models Are Wrong but Some Are Useful

This quote, first articulated by statistician George E. P. Box, is one of the most important principles in strategy and decision-making. It reminds us that every model — whether a business forecast, financial projection, or Wardley Map — is a simplification of reality. A model is wrong because it cannot capture every variable, but it is useful because it helps us act faster, align teams, and clarify choices.

Why All Models Are Wrong

Models are wrong for a simple reason: they accelerate decision-making by simplifying reality. In doing so, they inevitably:

• Omit details that may later prove important
• Rely on assumptions that may not hold
• Struggle to reflect the full complexity of dynamic systems

If leaders forget that a model is a simplification, they risk mistaking the model for the reality itself — a dangerous trap that can lead to poor strategy, failed forecasts, and costly decisions.

Why Models Are Useful

Despite being wrong, models are invaluable because they:

• Reduce complexity so decisions can be made quickly
• Create a shared language across teams and stakeholders
• Reveal patterns, dependencies, and opportunities
• Highlight risks and possible futures
• Enable action where perfect certainty is impossible

In Wardley Mapping, the map is not the territory. Its usefulness lies in sparking conversation, revealing movement, and helping organizations adapt, even though it is always incomplete.

Strategic Implications

1. Use models as guides, not gospel
   Challenge, refine, and adapt them as circumstances change.

2. Value usefulness over accuracy
   A model that speeds decision-making is more powerful than one that is technically precise but paralyzing.

3. Watch for the dangers of simplification
   Always ask: What has this model left out? Oversimplification creates blind spots that can derail strategy.

Example in Practice

Imagine forecasting demand for a new product:

• The model will never predict perfectly.
• What it can do is frame risk, test assumptions, and guide investment choices.
• Its usefulness lies not in precision but in sparking the right conversations and accelerating decisions.

Key Insight

Every business strategy, forecast, and Wardley Map is a model. They are all wrong because they simplify reality, but they are useful because they give clarity and speed in complex environments. The key is to balance decision-making speed with awareness of simplification. Forget the second, and the model stops being a tool — it becomes a trap.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Why are all models wrong?

All models are wrong because they simplify reality. They leave out details, depend on assumptions, and cannot fully capture complex systems. Their “wrongness” is a feature, not a flaw — simplification makes decision-making possible.

Why are some models useful?

Some models are useful because they accelerate decision-making, highlight patterns, and provide clarity. Their value lies not in accuracy but in guiding action under complexity.

What is the danger of oversimplification?

If you forget that a model is a simplification, you risk treating it as truth. Oversimplification can blind leaders to hidden risks, create false confidence, and lead to strategic failure.

How does this apply to Wardley Mapping?

Wardley Maps are not reality itself — they are models of a landscape. Their power lies in sparking conversation and revealing movement. They are useful because they help organizations make better strategic choices, even though they are always incomplete.