Evolution is the most fundamental aspect of mapping. It is an abstract concept that positively correlates with some universal component characteristics, such as ubiquity and certainty.
The concept of Evolution is easy to understand at the 'intuitive' level. We feel it is right, because things start with an invention (unpredictable), and we later observe them becoming boring (and predictable). Knowing this and knowing what causes those changes (competition) is enough for anticipating changes.
Things get a little bit tougher if you start digging into details. Terms like "Ubiquity" and "Uncertainty" are again quite easy to feel, but difficult to put down with mathematical precision.
"Ubiquity" is commonly understood as saturation of a potential market. That is why a gold bar (which saturated market of people needing one) is considered to be more ubiquitous than f.e. smartphones, despite the fact that more people own the latter rather than the former.
The trick is, however, in the word "potential". It refers to the future. We can only make an educated guess, and we will sometimes be right and sometimes be wrong. The less we know about the underlying component, the less certain is our prediction. Which brings us to "uncertainty".
Uncertainty means "what are the chances that a given component will surprise me". Again, we intuitively feel that those chances are "small" for electricity and "large" for teleportation, but any further attempts to gain more precision are futile. Uncertainty is not probability. It is not numeric.
Let's look at the component Evolution again, to change a perspective: when a component is invented, what do we know about it? That it might be useful for some people. If we are lucky, we can point those people out, but more often than not, we have to guess, because we do not know. The phrase "We do not know" means we are uncertain.
As time flies - experiments are conducted, new knowledge is unearthed, and we learn more things that we can and cannot do with a given component. That means two things - ubiquity increases (the component is applied in different contexts) and uncertainty decreases (we test where the component can be used).
As time flies further and as our knowledge grows, we feel more confident in using the component, and, finally, we can say - no further changes are expected. Of course, it does not mean it is the component stopped changing - it just means we do not expect those changes to happen anytime soon.
Note how "uncertainty" may affects "ubiquity" - if you rule out a certain market, your 'potential' will dwindle, and ubiquity will increase. It can also work the other way round - you may discover a new market and therefore decrease ubiquity. In both those cases, uncertainty is far more important than ubiquity - because it is all about knowledge.
For me, Evolution is the best attempt to estimate unknown. A particularly useful estimation.
The concept of Evolution is easy to understand at the 'intuitive' level. We feel it is right, because things start with an invention (unpredictable), and we later observe them becoming boring (and predictable). Knowing this and knowing what causes those changes (competition) is enough for anticipating changes.
Things get a little bit tougher if you start digging into details. Terms like "Ubiquity" and "Uncertainty" are again quite easy to feel, but difficult to put down with mathematical precision.
"Ubiquity" is commonly understood as saturation of a potential market. That is why a gold bar (which saturated market of people needing one) is considered to be more ubiquitous than f.e. smartphones, despite the fact that more people own the latter rather than the former.
The trick is, however, in the word "potential". It refers to the future. We can only make an educated guess, and we will sometimes be right and sometimes be wrong. The less we know about the underlying component, the less certain is our prediction. Which brings us to "uncertainty".
Uncertainty means "what are the chances that a given component will surprise me". Again, we intuitively feel that those chances are "small" for electricity and "large" for teleportation, but any further attempts to gain more precision are futile. Uncertainty is not probability. It is not numeric.
Let's look at the component Evolution again, to change a perspective: when a component is invented, what do we know about it? That it might be useful for some people. If we are lucky, we can point those people out, but more often than not, we have to guess, because we do not know. The phrase "We do not know" means we are uncertain.
As time flies - experiments are conducted, new knowledge is unearthed, and we learn more things that we can and cannot do with a given component. That means two things - ubiquity increases (the component is applied in different contexts) and uncertainty decreases (we test where the component can be used).
As time flies further and as our knowledge grows, we feel more confident in using the component, and, finally, we can say - no further changes are expected. Of course, it does not mean it is the component stopped changing - it just means we do not expect those changes to happen anytime soon.
Note how "uncertainty" may affects "ubiquity" - if you rule out a certain market, your 'potential' will dwindle, and ubiquity will increase. It can also work the other way round - you may discover a new market and therefore decrease ubiquity. In both those cases, uncertainty is far more important than ubiquity - because it is all about knowledge.
For me, Evolution is the best attempt to estimate unknown. A particularly useful estimation.
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